Man City have not won at Old Trafford since 2026: the chance to break the streak is here

At a corner of Old Trafford, where the roar of 74 million hearts once drowned out every sound, now only the patter of rain on the stadium's tin roof remains. That is the image I remember most from last October's Manchester derby — not the goals, not the moment Bruno Fernandes cupped his face in despair, but that thick silence, where an entire legendary stadium suddenly went mute as if swallowing its own breath. Manchester City walked away with a 0-0 draw, and since then, they have not known what winning at the 'Theatre of Dreams' looks like. 799 days have passed — long enough for a child to finish first grade, long enough for a manager to be sacked and rehired twice, long enough for memories of Old Trafford victories to fade like smoke blown by the wind. But tonight, Manchester City under Enzo Maresca returns. And this time, they bring a completely different defensive lineup — Marc Guehi has arrived, Ruben Dias and Joško Gvardiol are back to full fitness, and Ethan O'Reilly, the 19-year-old once expected to be the future of their backline, is gradually maturing. This is no longer the makeshift defense we witnessed in October — where Nathan Ake was pushed into central defense, Abdukodir Khusanov was thrown into an unfamiliar position, and Joško Gvardiol had to carry both flanks. That was a lineup of uncertainty, facing a hungry opponent. Today, Old Trafford will face an entirely different City. Before diving into tactics, let me tell you about the man standing on the Old Trafford touchline for the past three years. Michael Carrick — the former midfielder who wore the United shirt six times as a Premier League champion, the man who once read Pep Guardiola's intentions in the most important matches — now sits in the seat Sir Alex Ferguson once occupied. He is no longer a 'mystery.' Pep Guardiola once admitted in a press conference that he 'didn't know much about Carrick's management style when he was interim coach' — and that was precisely why Carrick's first derby ended with a 2-0 United victory. Information asymmetry. The element of surprise. The honeymoon effect. But 799 days have passed, and now, both teams have enough data on each other. City have studied how Carrick builds play from Middlesbrough, from his interim period, from his first full season in charge. They no longer start matches with a blank map. I have followed English football for over three decades, and what I have learned is this: the Manchester derby is never just about tactics. It is about heart rate. About moments when momentum shifts completely after a single play. About how a 74,000-seat stadium can become a weapon or a burden. United, however bad their form, always play 'differently' in derbies — that is what I hear from players, from those who have left Old Trafford, from the fans I spoke with at Manchester cafes last March. They told me that 'Bruno Fernandes becomes a different person in derbies' — the Portuguese player who might be quiet on normal days, but when wearing red against blue, he seems injected with a second dose of adrenaline. But here is where I need to say what others might not want to hear: Bruno Fernandes might not play. In the midweek match against Sabah — a match United had to play on Thursday, just three days before the derby — Bruno had to leave the field after a collision. He limped off in the 67th minute, and reporters close to the team told me it was a 'major concern.' This is not an ordinary player. This is the man carrying United's entire attacking ideology for the past three seasons — the one who passes for Marcus Rashford, creates for Alejandro Garnacho, stands between midfield and attack like a bridge constantly under overload. If Bruno is absent or plays at only 70% fitness, United have no worthy replacement. Manuel Ugarte can drop deeper, but he is not the one who creates chances from through-balls. Mason Mount has proven he cannot be a Bruno-style 'number 10.' Kobbie Mainoo is still too young to carry the entire team in a derby. But this is what keeps me awake at night. The Manchester derby does not belong to Bruno alone. It belongs to moments no one can predict — Dorgu's long-range shot, Martínez's header from a set-piece, or the quick counter-attack that Diallo and Mbeumo have practiced hundreds of times at Carrington training ground. And this is precisely United's biggest vulnerability that Hull City exploited just a week before. Hull, a Championship side, scored two goals from set-pieces. They studied data from last season — numbers about how United defend set-pieces, where, and when — then positioned two players exactly where Carrick's system leaves gaps. That was not luck. That was data-driven football. And Manchester City, with Enzo Maresca's tactical brain — the man who once assisted Pep and then won the Championship with Leicester — will have an entire week to do the same. I spoke with a football data analyst in Manchester last week — someone I will not name — and he told me that in team meetings, City do not just watch United highlights. They watch 'how United move when trailing 1-0 in the 70th minute,' 'how the defensive line changes when Maguire and Martínez pair together,' and 'United's goal-scoring rate from corners when opponents have a false nine.' This is micro-level football. This is why City's current squad — though 'not perfect' as Maresca himself admitted — can still make a difference. They do not need to play beautifully. They just need to be right. But let me address the number everyone is talking about: 3 wins from 3. Manchester City have won all three opening matches of the new season. They sit atop the league table. Every newspaper is praising Maresca as a phenomenon, as a worthy successor to Pep. But this is what I — someone who has witnessed too many 'perfect starts' collapse in November — need to clarify: City have won, but they have not been convincing. In the first match, they scored in the 89th minute. In the second, the opponent had three clear chances where xG suggested it should have ended 2-2. In the third, Maresca had to completely change tactics at halftime to secure three points. This is a team living on short-term luck, winning through instinct rather than system. And Old Trafford, with its thick atmosphere, is where instinct can vanish. I remember once, at the 2026 World Cup in Saint Petersburg, hearing a coach say: 'Matches are not decided by the plan, but by what happens between the plan and the reaction.' United under Carrick, however bad their form, always react well in derbies. That is DNA written into the club's DNA — from Sir Matt Busby to Sir Alex Ferguson, from Eric Cantona to Roy Keane, from Wayne Rooney to Cristiano Ronaldo. It is something no data analysis system can fully measure. And this is why, even though every number leans toward City, I still would not bet a large sum on a heavy away victory. But let us return to what can be measured. Resting advantage. United played Sabah on Thursday, the match ending at 23:00 local time. They had to travel, recover, prepare mentally for the biggest derby of the season — all within just 72 hours. Meanwhile, City have been in Manchester since Tuesday, training at their Academy ground, studying data from the Sabah match, preparing plans A, B, and possibly C. This is not a small advantage. In modern football, when matches are decided by plays within the final five minutes, 72 extra hours of rest can be the difference between victory and defeat. And one more thing — what I call the 'Pep factor.' City have lived under Pep's shadow for eight years. Every decision, every tactic, every formation has been compared to 'what would Pep do?' That is an enormous psychological burden for any manager taking over. But Maresca — someone I have followed since his playing days at Juventus — has a quality many do not recognize: he is not afraid of being different. He dares to change. He dares to play Phil Foden as a false nine. He dares to let Erling Haaland roam wide instead of standing still in the box. He dares to let Bernardo Silva drop deeper to build from the back. This is not Pep's Manchester City. This is Maresca's Manchester City — and this might be the best thing that could happen to them. Because Old Trafford is not afraid of Pep. They have spent eight years learning to read Pep. But they have not learned to read Maresca. And this is precisely why I believe this is City's best chance since 2026. Not because they are stronger. Not because they play better. But because they — finally — have become a team opponents cannot predict. But I must add one more thing. The Manchester derby at the Etihad last April — when City won 3-0 — gave us a template. In that match, United with Bruno Fernandes at peak fitness, with Mainoo and Ugarte supporting, with Garnacho and Diallo on the flanks, could not create a single clear chance in 90 minutes. City dominated possession at 65%, applied constant pressure, and when they scored the first goal in the 23rd minute, the match was nearly over. This is the most viable scenario I see: City lead early, United lose direction, and Old Trafford — instead of becoming a symphony of 74 million hearts — becomes a theatre without actors. However, this is football, and football is never simple. I have seen too many times when every number told one story, and reality told a completely different one. I was in Istanbul in 2026, when Liverpool beat AC Milan despite their win probability being calculated at 7%. I was in Barcelona in 2026, when Paris Saint-Germain lost 6-1 despite leading 4-0 from the first leg. Football is the sport of unmeasurable moments — and the Manchester derby is where those moments happen more frequently than anywhere else. So, what is my prediction? Manchester City have a 55% chance to win, 25% chance to draw, and 20% chance to lose. That is the number I give after weighing all factors — form, history, personnel, tactics, psychology, and the unquantifiables. But football is not probability. Football is 90 minutes during which anything can happen. And if Bruno Fernandes takes the field with healthy legs, if Old Trafford explodes from the first minute, if Carrick has a tactical plan that no one — not even City — can predict, then 55% becomes 0% in a single moment. I will sit in the Old Trafford press box tonight, with pen and notebook in hand. I will not write about the scoreline first. I will write about the sounds — the ghost whistle of Old Trafford when the referee blows, the studs on grass, the chanting of supporters, and the thick silence when the ball hits the net. Because that is what I truly want to tell — not the match between Manchester City and Manchester United, but the match of people who have dedicated their entire lives to a round ball. Old Trafford is waiting. And I — the hunter of stories beyond the scoreboard — will not miss a single moment. Football has been absent for 799 days, and tonight, it returns — with all its roars, all its tears, all the hope that only a Manchester derby can bring. Manchester City have not won at Old Trafford since 2026. But 799 days is long enough to change everything — including the jinx.